Vikiliks: Stratfor o stanju u Crnoj Gori i na Balkanu

Cijela Crna Gora bavi se organizovanim kriminalom, uključujući i Vladu, otkrivaju nova tajna dokumenta koje je juče počeo da objavljuje Vikiliks. Taj sajt je došao u posjed više od pet miliona mejlova privatne američke bezbjednosne kompanije „Stratfor“, koja se bavi geopolitičkim analizama i radi za multinacionalne kompanije, ali i za Vladu SAD.

Vikiliks nije objavio ime svog izvora, ali se vjeruje da je objavljivanje materijala povezano s hakerskim upadom na „Stratforov“ server u decembru 2011. koji je izvela grupa Anonimus.Mejlovi obuhvataju period od jula 2004. do decembra 2011. godine i pokazuju kako je „Stratfor“ imao mreže doušnika, strukture za davanje mita i tehnike za pranje novca po čitavom svijetu, pa i na Balkanu.

Ono što je američke obavještajce najviše interesovalo kad je riječ o Balkanu, jeste organizovani kriminal, zatim sukob Srba i Albanaca na Kosovu, neonacistički pokreti, protesti raznih grupa, pa i sindikata, operacije islamskih terorista i napadi vezani za drogu i oružje.

U jednom od objavljenih mejlova nalaze se uputstva kako pratiti situaciju na Balkanu. U njemu je Crna Gora označena kao zemlja koja se bavi organizovanim kriminalom, uključujući i njenu vladu.

– Put Crne Gore u EU veoma je interesantan, kao i to u kojoj mjeri je kriminalna vlada zainteresovana da zaustavi organizovani kriminal koji je pokreće – navodi se u jednom mejlu.

*** ***

Bezbjednost

Organizovani kriminal posebno da se prati:

• Hrvatska – visoka aktivnost
• Crna Gora – cijela zemlja je organizovani kriminal, uključujući Vladu
• Bosna – visoka aktivnost, povezana s Rusijom, tako da je dvostruko važna
• Albanija/Kosovo – pažljivo motriti aktivnosti Albanske mafije

Obratiti pažnju i na ostalo:
• Srbi na severu Kosova, mogu da buknu bilo kada. Albanci u Preševu i Muslimani u Sandžaku (oba u Srbiji)
• Povećan broj neonacističkog nasilja, naročito u Vojvodini protiv Mađara (Srbija),

Hrvatska (protiv Roma i Srba)
• Protesti, nemiri, sindikalne aktivnosti… Oni nisu organizovani kao u Zapadnoj Evropi, ali štrajk albanskih rudara na Kosovu 80-ih godina na izvestan način je zapalio ceo region
• Bilo kakve neuobičajene radnje islamskih terorističkih grupa
• Napadi vezani za oružje i drogu

Inostrani odnosi
Posebno pratiti:
• Makedonija – problem s Grčkom
• Slovenija – problem s Hrvatskom
• Srbija – odnosi sa svima

Ruski potezi na Balkanu:
• Treba obratiti pažnju na bilo kakvo pripajanje energetskih kompanija u regionu
• Rusija daje zajmove regionu
• Bilo kakvi potezi ruskih lidera/političara/biznismena u regionu
• Rusko-srpski odnosi su naročito važni za nadgledanje. Nije važno što te dvije zemlje igraju prijateljsku fudbalsku utakmicu, o tome moramo sve da znamo

*** ***

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered “global intelligence” company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.

EUROPE (TIER 2) ANALYTICAL GUIDANCE:
THEMES AND ISSUES TO MONITOR

BALKANS (SERBIA, CROATIA, BOSNIA, ALBANIA, MACEDONIA, MONTENEGRO, BULGARIA)

Security:

  • Security situation in the Balkans is complex and multifaceted. First, we need to keep an eye on any security concerns inBosnia. Any indication that ethnic groups inBosniaare looking for greater autonomy or that violence is again on the prowl. Splits between Croats and Muslims is particularly key. We need to be warned of any sign of soccer related violence, OC crime, anything that could coalesce into ethnic crime.Bosniais KEY for this region.
  • Organized crime needs to be followed carefully. We need to be kept abreast of any events in the Balkans that are OC related. The countries to watch in particular areCroatia(high OC activity),Macedonia,Montenegro(the entire country is OC, including the government),Bosnia(very high OC penetration, with Russian links so doubly important) and Albania/Kosovo (careful eye on Albanian mob activities).
  • Serbs inNorthern Kosovo, they can flare up at any time. Also, Albanians inPresovoValleyand Muslims in Sandzak (both inSerbia).
  • Rise in neo-Nazi violence, particularly in Vojvodina against Hungarians (Serbia),Croatia(against Roma and Serbs) and also anti-minority, anti-Pomak (Muslims) violence inBulgaria.
  • Protests, riots, union activity… It is not as organized as inWestern Europe, but milk protests inBulgariaor worker protests inBosniaare key. Remember, it was the strikes by Albanian miners in Kosovo back in the 1980s that in a way moved the region towards conflagration.
  • Any strange movements by Islamist terrorist groups in and out of the region.
  • Drug seizures and weapon seizures.

Political Issues:

  • Bosnia,Bosnia,Bosnia. Any split developing in Croatian-Muslim federation is key. Radicalization of Republica Srpska.
  • Politics withinSerbia: internal politics are very confusing, but we want to be kept abrest of almost anything that goes down there. Shifts can indicate new alliances that create new parties and such.
  • Montenegro: their road to EU is interesting, we want to know what OC/government is doing and to what extent are they interested in curbing OC activities that run the government.
  • Macedonian attempts to enter the EU and NATO are also something to keep an eye on.

International Relations:

  • Macedonia-Greecedispute…
  • Slovenia-Croatiadispute…
  • Serbiaand its relations with everyone.
  • Russian moves in the Balkans:

–          We need to keep an eye out on any acquisitions of energy companies by the Russians in the region.

–         Russiagiving loans to the region.

–          Any movements by Russian leaders/politicians/businessmen to the region.

–         Russia-Serbiarelationship is particularly important one for us to monitor. I don’t care if the two have a friendly soccer game, we should know about it.

  • EU – Balkan relations:

–          Any threats by the EU thatBulgariais dragging its feet on corruption or that the Balkans are delaying with reforms.

–          Any statements by the Commission, Council or the Enlargement Commissioner are important.

Economics:

  • Because of the global recession, any numbers coming out of the region — which are tougher to get than the rest of the world — are very important.
  • Watch for any labor/union/rioting due to the crisis. Don’t forget, the IMF austerity measures imposed onYugoslaviawas in part to blame for the start of the war there. We need to be aware of any economically motivated social discontentment.
  • Watch carefullySerbia,BosniaandCroatiain terms of economic statements.
  • Bulgariamay be in a lot of trouble as well.
  • Any sign thatWestern Europeis pulling on its development aid or what they want to give to the region is key as well.
  • IMF visits to the region.
  • Banking trouble, any mention of foreign banks in the region doing anything surprising, such as closing shop or preventing investments there.

izvor: http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5424835_-eurasia-europe-analytical-guidance-tier-3-.html

Comments

  1. Kako mi sve ove informacije liče na one od prije 15-tak godina:
    “Nepomen je garant mira i stabilnosti na Blakanu”(iako smo svi znali, mnogi i podržavali, da žari i pali Balkanom), ali je važno bilo ono što nam govre evropljani i amerikanci a ne ono što vidimo svojim očima.
    Zatim je “garant stabilnosti i mira” preko noći postao “Balkanski kasapin”. I završio je tamo đe je završio.
    Njegov najbolji učenik je do skora “vodio Crnu Goru pravim putem, proevropski, demokratski, transparentno, moderno… Vlada na čijem je čelu predstavlja primjer u regionu…”(a svi smo dobro znali ko je, što je, kako je i sa kim vodi)
    Preko noći isti postaje pokrovitelj mafije, glavna kočnica razvoja, kontraverzni premijer umiješan u mnoge afere…
    Previše sličnosti i slučajnosti.

  2. Montenegro (the entire country is OC, including the government) – Šta dalje?

  3. Meni je ova recenica favorit (o rusko-srpskim odnosima): “I don’t care if the two have a friendly soccer game, we should know about it.”

    A ostalo? Pa nekome ce to biti potvrda za ono sto je godinama tvrdio, nekome ni to nece biti dovoljno da osudi djelovanje Vlade & bekgraunda, a nekim rijetkima valjda bude i kap koja ce preliti casu, pa da se polako stvara kriticna faking masa.

    • Zarko Raznatovic says:

      Mene je ovo potvrda da su crnogorski novinari čine najgori segment crnogorskog drustva. Definitivno. Ovo ljudi iz VIJESTI su veliki pokvarenjaci. Ne trebaju nama nikakvi tajni dokumenti nego javni, zvanični stav Stejt Departmenta o Crnoj Gori.
      ———————–
      Despite considerable progress since independence and success in maintaining inter-ethnic harmony, some ethnic tensions remain. The country must also cope with the significant challenges involved in strengthening the rule of law. Numerous international observers, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), think tanks, and media have reported on Montenegro’s significant problems with organized crime and corruption, which are widely believed to be pervasive at all levels of society. In addition to these issues, there is a significant disparity in incomes between the rural, ex-industrial northern regions of Montenegro and the more prosperous central and coastal regions. In June 2010, the Department of State’s Trafficking in Persons (TIP) annual report upgraded Montenegro from Tier 2 Watch List to Tier 2, citing the country’s significant efforts in attempting to meet minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking.

      Ili: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/70949.htm

      Miodragu Peroviću i njemu sličnim kriminal i korupcija nijesu smetali dok je punio džepove. Sada se, odjednom, sjetio da izigrava pošetanjačinu.

    • Vlado,

      meni je, biću otvoren, ovaj Stratfor izvještaj jedno najobičnije američko sranje…kroz gusto granje, i mislim da nema razloga za likovanje u bilo kom pogledu.

      Najprije, jezik im je toliko opušteno uličarski da mora izazivati sumnju u kvalitet radnika na njemu i naravno samog uradka.

      Srbe i Ruse treba pratiti čak i kada igraju fudbal…što je ovo ???cijela zemlja i vlada (CG) su organizovani kriminal…dobro aj za vladu i OK , ali kakva cijela zemlja ???Rise in neo-Nazi violence, particularly in Vojvodina against Hungarians (Serbia) ????i sl. Srbi nagrdiše Mađare, po njima ???

      Nadalje, pitam se koja je svrha pravljenja ovakvih izvještaja; da li će oni poslužiti USA vladi da nam pomogne ili će, kako sam ja uvjeren, poslužiti da starog partnera zamijene novim, sličnog kvaliteta i još poslušnijeg spram njihovih nekad veoma zahtjevnih zadataka.

      Mi jesmo prilična sprdnja od države ali ne vidim da se ovakvim analiziranjem i izvještavanjem niti bilo čim drugim USA trudi da ispravi ono što je označeno kao loše u našoj državi. Podrška našoj vladi od strane USA je bila očita i na spoljnom i na unutrašnjem planu.

      • Vecina je dala podrsku vladajucoj koaliciji na izborima iako su znali sta radi vladajuca koalicija.To jeste saucesnistvo u organizovanom kriminalu.Zna se tacno ko se bavio kriminalom i ko je to podrzavao.Vecina gradjana je glasala za to i na kraju jeste saucesnik u tome.

      • Nisam likovao uopste, ni sad niti bilo kad kad na vidjelo izadju kakve sporkece, jer znam koga to na kraju najvise boli. Ali je cinjenica da se Stratfor uzima za ozbiljnu instancu bez obzira na eventualni interni ulicarski govor. I da ima resurse da sve svoje idiotske namjere provodi i u djelo. Dakle njihove tvrdnje znace jasnu potvrdu za sumnje & indicije koje u CG javnosti iznose neki svjesni pojedinci, iako su u nemogucnosti da natjeraju sudstvo da radi svoj posao. Sve ovo takodje znaci da nam ovakav ‘ulicarski govor’ u krajnjoj konsekvenci i kapu kroji, sto jeste porazno, ali ko nam je kriv.
        Inace, ne mislim da ce se SAD ikad truditi da lose stanje poprave, pogotovo ukoliko vide da domicilno stanovnistvo radi sve da stanje pokvari. Ne bih ni ja. Vjerovatno sve vodi ka mijenjanju partnera, ali ja vjerujem da ipak zavisi vise od nas nego od njih ko ce i kakav taj partner biti. Jer nemamo mi ni resursa ni drugih carolija da bi se oni tramakavali oko nas, pogotovo dok im je puna kapa vecih problema.

      • Nedovic je u pravu. Ulicarski govor Stratfora nista ovdje ne znaci kada USA sve sprovodi kako ih informisu.

  4. Војин Николајевич says:

    • Crna Gora – cijela zemlja je organizovani kriminal, uključujući Vladu

    Ха, ха, ха, … Цијела земља…

  5. Војин Николајевич says:

    Химна Владе Црне Горе…

    • Војин Николајевич says:

      Sta Bi Dao Da Si Na Mom Mjestu

      Sta bi dao da si na mom mjestu
      Da te mrze a da ti se dive :)
      Sta bi dao za veliku gestu
      Mjesto svoga da tvoj zivot zive

      Sta bi dao da mozes ovako
      Dici ruke a puk da te slijedi :)
      Da l’ bi i ti u svom srcu plak'o
      Kao sto se moje srce ledi

      Ti, budi sretan sad sto si preko puta
      I sto nas strasni let nad provalijom dijeli :)
      Jer ovo je samo mojih pet minuta
      A pred tobom stoji zivot cijeli

  6. Војин Николајевич says:

    Химна грађана Црне Горе :))

  7. Војин Николајевич says:

    Stratfor: Ruse i Srbe držati na oku i kada igraju fudbal

    :)) Шоу!

  8. Војин Николајевич says:

    Могу само замислити колико сличних информација има руски државни врх. А какве су те информације нејбоље свједочи планирани војни буџет Русије, којег Руси кроз кисјелу шалу називају ратним буџетом.

    Додуше, својевремено је Олбрајтова рекла да Сибир не може бити територија само Русије, већ је то територија читавог Свијета. Исто као што је ирачка нафта постал власништво “читавог Свијета” :)

  9. Plannco Wallach S. says:

    to su samo pikanterije, koje nemaju nikakvu upotrebnu vrijednost. sa zapada moze da dodje besplatno samo shto nije vishe za upotrebu.

  10. Jadna je zemlja kojoj treba wilkiliks da otvori oci dok narod cuti,trpi,zmuri…glasa kad dodju izbori pa onda na razne proteste kad za to dodje vrijeme.Tako sve u krug.

  11. Dragan Janjić says:

    EVO ŠTO SE JOŠ MOŽE NAĆI NA SAJTU “SLOBODNA MALESIJA”:

    http://FREEMALESIA.BLOGSPOT.COM/2011/03/WIKILEAKS-US-AMBASSADOR-LINKS.HTML
    SATURDAY, MARCH 05, 2011
    WikiLeaks: U.S. Ambassador links Montenegrin Government with Criminal-Like Clans

    The United States on Montenegro

    WikiLeaks Exclusive: There are links of criminal clans and government officials

    Few countries in Europe have such a bad reputation when it comes to the fight against corruption as Montenegro, said U.S. Ambassador in Podgorica Roderick Moore in a dispatch sent by the State Department in September 2009.

    Moore explained this reputation and the issue of conflict of interest as a result politicians being at a high level of well-positioned businesses, for example, Moore explained the position of the Vice President of the ruling DPS, Svetozar Marovic.

    Marovic was allegedly linked to 22 separate companies either directly or through family members. According to Moore, “Frequent rumors claimed that one cannot make a significant job in Budva without Marovic’s blessing.”
    The Montenegrin Bank is the only institutions that has benefited from the government's package of 40 million euros, which was the result of the global economic crisis. Many other senior politicians also have significant business interests, including interests in public companies, Moore wrote.

    Americans claimed that in Montenegro, as well as in other transitional societies in this region, excessive weaknesses include broad preference of old friends and nepotism, poor control over conflict of interest, and it was observed that legal impunity for persons associated with the ruling party and the failure of the judicial system to effectively and consistently punish corrupt officials.

    Assessing the nature and extent of corruption in Montenegro is difficult to quantify, Moore said, and that various reports indicate that corruption is happening on most levels.

    Speaking about the factors of corruption in Montenegro, he wrote that the manipulation of the economic transition from the well-connected people made high-ranking politicians and a small group of oligarchs very rich.
    “Despite the adoption of improved legislation on conflict of interest, this issue continues to strain Montenegro. The most problematic aspect of this is that public officials, including government officials, judges, public prosecutors and their deputies, as well as parliamentarians, can be paid for positions as presidents or members of management and control bodies and the executive directors or managers of public corporations where the state or municipalities have the part,” wrote the U.S. ambassador.

    Embassy without text

    Another problem is that many public officials do not have to declare their assets, as required by law, or do not report everything, with little or no legal consequences. Moore noted that critics question the independence of the Commission for conflict of interest and express concern due to the absence of stricter penalties.

    The U.S. Embassy in Montenegro did not want to comment on the documents expressed by WikiLeaks, claiming that “The U.S. Embassy cannot speak about the authenticity of documents submitted to the media which state the dispatch of the U.S. Government. As part of our policy, the U.S. government does not comment on the documents that allegedly contain sensitive information.”

    Relationships of power and criminal clans

    According to a dispatch in July 2007, the embassy in Podgorica says that even with increased political will, Montenegro has no ability to attack organized crime.

    The possible lack of political will and/or weak institutions explain the low number of judgments when it comes to corruption cases. Some of the other factors, which are listed in the document, the lax courts, selection of judges, inadequate cases of conflict of interest between judges and the cases that they deal with Stronger government action when it comes to transparency would help break down the occasional links between criminal clans and government officials, including the publishing of assets and increasing the visibility of decision-making.

    It added that the structure of the budget for 2007 makes the funding of the judiciary vulnerable to political influence and that “the EU and others urged the government of Montenegro make the judiciary financially independent, which is a huge step in strengthening the rule of law and fighting corruption. There was no police action or trial against high government officials at the middle level of organized crime and corruption.”

    Nepotism and conflict of interest

    The size of Montenegro, said Moore, it seems inevitable that everyone knows everyone in some way. In fact, claimed the dispatch, the use of “connections” is widely accepted as a way that things end up in Montenegro.

    The tradition of relationship, however, contributes to an environment that reduces competition, multiplies the conflicts of interest and encourages nepotism in hiring. These factors were exacerbated by the fact that the same two parties were in power in Montenegro over the last decade, encouraging a bad habit that is weak, and a disunited opposition had little success to stop it.

    In addition, many of those who have political power are prominent in the business world, which caused major issues related to conflict of interest.
    According to Moore, Montenegro's institutions of law enforcement have had only limited success in prosecuting and punishing perpetrators of corruption, especially at the higher levels. In the first six months of 2009, of the 111 charges of corruption against 173 people, only one verdict was rendered.

    Possible lack of political will and/or weak institutions explain the low number of judgments when it comes to corruption cases. Some of the other factors, which are listed in the document, the biased courts, selection of judges, inadequate dealings with conflicts between judges and the cases that they deal with, etc.

    “Regulatory officials, such as inspectors for Planning, is not routinely reported to law enforcement authorities of dissent, while police and prosecutors rarely act on complaints of property owners and other citizens,” wrote Moore.
    Posted by Free Malësia at 11:04 AM

  12. Plannco Wallach S. says:

    hljeba i “vikiliks”. pisha li pisha!

  13. Nazalost sve ovo izneseno o Crnoj Gori je tacno i svaki pojedinac treba da se bori koliko moze da situaciju nekako normalizujemo .Predlazem intelektualcima da iznesu u medijima cinjenice kako bi oslobodili i otvorili oci narodu ka nuznim promjenama u drustveno politickim prilikama u zemlji!

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